Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261009 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.3 30.6 36.8 42.5 56.3 60.1 48.1 70.9 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 42.8 37.4 37.4 33.4 29.7 20.1 13.9 4.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -4.0 42.0 4.0 0.0 10.0 24.0 -61.0 VU U N U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 29.0 30.0 32.0 38.0 51.0 61.0 68.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -6.0 -4.0 -12.0 -46.0 -3.0 6.0 N N F F F VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.04 EP182026 261009 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 125.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.