Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 34.5 41.6 49.0 62.7 60.7 65.9 65.9 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.4 37.4 33.4 31.2 24.6 19.6 7.1 7.1 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 40.0 5.0 -24.0 18.0 41.0 63.0 63.0 U N U VU U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 31.0 30.0 32.0 34.0 44.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 -11.0 -34.0 -45.0 18.0 18.0 N F F F VF VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.76 EP182026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.60 124.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.