Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261009 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 124.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.00 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 42.1 51.9 57.6 60.3 57.2 68.2 68.2 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 37.4 33.4 30.4 29.7 19.6 9.3 3.8 3.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 13.0 -36.0 -12.0 31.0 8.0 51.0 51.0 N U VU U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 30.0 31.0 33.0 38.0 49.0 62.0 65.0 65.0 VU VU VU VU U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 -14.0 -13.0 -46.0 -1.0 12.0 12.0 F F VF VF VF N U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.42 EP182026 261009 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 124.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.