Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261010 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 122.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.9 56.2 60.2 60.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 26.2 24.7 19.6 14.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -6.0 42.0 35.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 VU U N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 38.0 44.0 53.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -13.0 -28.0 -45.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.54 EP182026 261010 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.10 122.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.