Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261010 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.40 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 55.1 62.3 61.7 57.8 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 24.7 19.6 15.1 14.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 31.0 39.0 39.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 46.0 51.0 58.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 VU VU U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -29.0 -46.0 -42.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 VF VF VF VF VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.22 EP182026 261010 12UTC Storm Located at : 24.70 120.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.