Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261010 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 118.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.30 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.9 64.8 60.2 61.9 76.5 76.5 76.5 76.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 19.1 11.2 25.0 -0.4 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 40.0 38.0 71.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 49.0 56.0 61.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 VU U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -38.0 -40.0 16.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 VF VF VF U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.02 EP182026 261010 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.80 118.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.