Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261011 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.6 59.4 60.2 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 75.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.7 12.8 -1.8 -6.4 -6.4 -6.4 -6.4 -6.4 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 55.0 43.0 -2.0 -68.0 -68.0 -68.0 -68.0 -68.0 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 62.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -55.0 -37.0 -9.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0 -32.0 VF VF F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.62 EP182026 261011 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 117.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.