Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182026 261011 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 116.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.50 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.3 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 7.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 -18.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 17.72 EP182026 261011 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 116.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.