Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  29.1  28.0  33.7  35.1  38.2  38.5  38.5  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   8.0  13.0   9.0   9.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 114.4 116.5 116.5 118.6 118.6 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  17.0   4.0  13.0  37.0  61.0  21.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP192026 260929 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    131.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.2  29.1  28.0  33.7  35.1  38.2  38.5  38.5  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%