Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  33.7  34.1  34.8  38.8  41.3  41.3  41.3  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  13.0  15.0  10.0  10.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.7 121.5 121.5 121.5 123.6 127.9 127.9 127.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   4.0  12.0  35.0  73.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 EP192026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    129.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.0  33.7  34.1  34.8  38.8  41.3  41.3  41.3  N  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%