Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  15.8  16.4  16.0  16.0  15.9  13.8   9.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  45.0  54.0  59.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  86.0  90.0  63.0  85.0 110.0 131.0  85.0  N  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        5.0%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       16.1%       44.0%       30.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       26.8%       17.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       26.8%       15.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       25.5%       13.6%
 45kt / 36h       15.0%       57.8%       36.4%
 55kt / 36h        8.1%       37.8%       22.9%
 55kt / 48h       25.3%       44.2%       34.8%
 70kt / 48h       11.8%       36.5%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h       45.9%       70.7%       58.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 EP202026 261007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  15.8  16.4  16.0  16.0  15.9  13.8   9.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  85.0  85.0  83.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%