Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 102.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 16.5 14.7 15.5 17.8 11.1 10.9 10.8 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 45.0 51.0 55.0 59.0 53.0 42.0 29.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 65.0 94.0 95.0 111.0 69.0 51.0 32.0 F N F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 80.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 69.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 14.9% 12.6% 25kt / 24h 47.1% 69.4% 58.3% 30kt / 24h 27.3% 59.1% 43.2% 35kt / 24h 17.1% 59.1% 38.1% 40kt / 24h 11.1% 59.1% 35.1% 45kt / 36h 39.7% 74.9% 57.3% 55kt / 36h 25.6% 59.7% 42.6% 55kt / 48h 46.8% 63.6% 55.2% 70kt / 48h 25.1% 55.5% 40.3% 65kt / 72h 42.1% 71.0% 56.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.30 EP202026 261008 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 102.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 16.5 14.7 15.5 17.8 11.1 10.9 10.8 N N U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 80.0 77.0 75.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 69.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%