Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261008 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 102.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 14.2 14.6 15.9 16.0 12.9 9.9 15.9 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 42.0 49.0 54.0 59.0 54.0 44.0 30.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 76.0 75.0 79.0 100.0 70.0 56.0 27.0 N N N N F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.9% 15.9% 14.4% 25kt / 24h 43.7% 65.2% 54.5% 30kt / 24h 28.2% 57.1% 42.7% 35kt / 24h 20.0% 57.1% 38.6% 40kt / 24h 13.3% 57.1% 35.2% 45kt / 36h 40.1% 67.0% 53.6% 55kt / 36h 26.1% 49.2% 37.6% 55kt / 48h 41.9% 55.6% 48.8% 70kt / 48h 23.9% 42.5% 33.2% 65kt / 72h 32.7% 60.5% 46.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 EP202026 261008 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 102.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 14.2 14.6 15.9 16.0 12.9 9.9 15.9 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 79.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%