Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.2  14.0  13.7  16.3  17.5  24.2  27.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  43.0  22.0  19.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  64.0  75.0  63.0  75.0  29.0  23.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0 -10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       74.4%       52.1%       63.3%
 25kt / 24h       90.9%       88.0%       89.4%
 30kt / 24h       90.9%       88.0%       89.4%
 35kt / 24h       90.9%       88.0%       89.4%
 40kt / 24h       90.9%       88.0%       89.4%
 45kt / 36h       70.5%       62.5%       66.5%
 55kt / 36h       47.7%       44.1%       45.9%
 55kt / 48h       35.7%       51.0%       43.3%
 70kt / 48h       18.6%       23.0%       20.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.9%       14.4%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP202026 261009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    104.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.4  14.2  14.0  13.7  16.3  17.5  24.2  27.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  74.0  71.0  64.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0 -10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%