Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 104.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 13.7 14.0 15.0 14.7 19.1 20.4 17.5 F F F F F N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 55.0 56.0 53.0 47.0 30.0 24.0 22.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 57.0 63.0 77.0 59.0 25.0 31.0 14.0 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 69.0 67.0 59.0 58.0 F F F N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 74.0% 55.8% 64.9% 25kt / 24h 81.9% 87.2% 84.6% 30kt / 24h 81.9% 87.2% 84.6% 35kt / 24h 81.9% 87.2% 84.6% 40kt / 24h 81.9% 87.2% 84.6% 45kt / 36h 72.9% 64.3% 68.6% 55kt / 36h 42.4% 47.9% 45.2% 55kt / 48h 34.3% 44.5% 39.4% 70kt / 48h 17.8% 22.8% 20.3% 65kt / 72h 6.7% 16.6% 11.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 EP202026 261009 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 104.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.8 13.7 14.0 15.0 14.7 19.1 20.4 17.5 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 69.0 67.0 59.0 58.0 U U U N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -3.0 -1.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%