Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    104.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  17.9  20.3  17.6  15.1  18.0  14.3  16.8  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  23.0  24.0  20.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  48.0  59.0  28.0  -6.0  55.0   2.0  13.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.6%       46.7%       56.6%
 25kt / 24h       62.8%       70.4%       66.6%
 30kt / 24h       60.2%       70.4%       65.3%
 35kt / 24h       60.2%       70.4%       65.3%
 40kt / 24h       39.8%       67.4%       53.6%
 45kt / 36h       70.6%       52.2%       61.4%
 55kt / 36h       26.9%       36.8%       31.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.6%       17.9%       20.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP202026 261010 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    104.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.6  17.9  20.3  17.6  15.1  18.0  14.3  16.8  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  63.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%