Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.7  19.8  18.0  16.4  13.1  19.7  19.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  45.0  37.0  28.0  25.0  23.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    68.0  95.0  56.0 -14.0   3.0   6.0  11.0  11.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.3%       16.1%       33.7%
 25kt / 24h       22.9%       18.5%       20.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 EP202026 261010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.7  19.8  18.0  16.4  13.1  19.7  19.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  61.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%