Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  17.3  18.3  19.3  17.2  15.3  19.0  19.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  46.0  37.0  27.0  24.0  21.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  40.0  16.0  16.0  17.0   7.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.3%        6.2%       12.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.3%        7.4%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.36

 EP202026 261010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  17.3  18.3  19.3  17.2  15.3  19.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%