Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.9  19.6  20.1  17.7  18.8  17.8  17.8  F  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   42.0  34.0  24.0  22.0  23.0  14.0   7.0   7.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  37.0  -1.0   9.0  13.0  -3.0 -22.0 -22.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        2.2%        3.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP202026 261011 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    104.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  19.9  19.6  20.1  17.7  18.8  17.8  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.2%