Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.1  20.1  20.0  17.6  20.8  18.8  18.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  27.0  24.0  24.0  30.0  29.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   8.0 -23.0   0.0  -5.0   9.0  -6.0  -6.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        2.4%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        2.4%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 EP202026 261011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    105.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  20.1  20.1  20.0  17.6  20.8  18.8  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  57.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  52.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%