Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  20.1  20.7  18.7  20.6  16.4  15.3  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  25.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0   5.0  -5.0  10.0  23.0  -7.0   8.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP202026 261011 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.40    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  20.1  20.7  18.7  20.6  16.4  15.3  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  52.0  54.0  57.0  52.0  50.0  46.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       14.2%        7.1%