Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.3  20.3  23.5  18.3  19.4  17.5  18.8  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  25.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  28.0  28.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  -2.0  -2.0   6.0  15.0  28.0 -14.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  54.0  55.0  50.0  46.0  40.0  38.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  F  F  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.8%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.3%        0.5%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.3%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP202026 261012 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  20.3  20.3  23.5  18.3  19.4  17.5  18.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  50.0  54.0  55.0  50.0  46.0  40.0  38.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0  -3.0   0.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%