Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  17.6  15.7  15.9  13.2  13.6  18.4  26.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -8.0  27.0  29.0  -7.0  20.0  22.0  56.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        1.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        7.7%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        5.1%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%        4.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        8.1%        2.2%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        0.5%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        2.5%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        0.7%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 EP202026 261013 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    106.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  17.6  15.7  15.9  13.2  13.6  18.4  26.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  54.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%