Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.7  15.8  15.2  17.0  17.1  23.3  28.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  11.0  14.0  29.0  10.0  33.0   0.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        2.3%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        5.3%        9.2%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%        6.4%        5.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        6.4%        5.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%        6.4%        5.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.2%        2.1%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        0.4%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        2.7%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        0.6%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP202026 261013 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.50    107.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.7  15.8  15.2  17.0  17.1  23.3  28.4  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  42.0  46.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%