Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  16.1  16.9  15.9  17.1  14.4  20.8  33.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0   9.0  38.0  18.0  40.0  24.0  63.0  34.0  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.3%        4.8%        6.0%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       15.6%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h       10.7%       13.2%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       13.2%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h       10.7%       13.2%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h       12.0%        4.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        3.1%        1.1%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        5.0%        5.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        0.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        1.1%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP202026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    107.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     56.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  16.1  16.9  15.9  17.1  14.4  20.8  33.5  U  U  N  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  51.0  49.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  45.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%