Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202026 261014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  16.6  16.0  16.2  11.5  18.3  31.6  42.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   6.0  22.0   5.0  32.0  37.0  -9.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  U  U VU  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.5%       11.7%       20.1%
 25kt / 24h       39.5%       21.6%       30.6%
 30kt / 24h       39.5%       19.4%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h       39.5%       19.4%       29.5%
 40kt / 24h       39.5%       19.4%       29.5%
 45kt / 36h       38.4%       11.1%       24.8%
 55kt / 36h       11.5%        3.9%        7.7%
 55kt / 48h       16.9%        5.0%       11.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP202026 261014 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     40.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  16.6  16.0  16.2  11.5  18.3  31.6  42.2  U  N  U  U  U  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  47.0  49.0  51.0  47.0  47.0  49.0  F  F VF  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%