Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261014 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 35.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 17.4 14.8 12.8 12.3 17.2 35.6 46.8 F F F F F F U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 23.0 24.0 26.0 27.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 14.0 15.0 35.0 30.0 3.0 -28.0 27.0 U U U N N U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 52.0 U U U U U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 12.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 25.5% 9.9% 17.7% 25kt / 24h 43.6% 22.7% 33.2% 30kt / 24h 43.6% 20.1% 31.9% 35kt / 24h 43.6% 20.1% 31.9% 40kt / 24h 43.6% 20.1% 31.9% 45kt / 36h 41.1% 12.7% 26.9% 55kt / 36h 13.2% 4.5% 8.9% 55kt / 48h 18.5% 5.6% 12.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 EP202026 261014 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 35.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 17.4 14.8 12.8 12.3 17.2 35.6 46.8 N N U U U N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 47.0 48.0 52.0 F F F F F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 12.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%