Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261014 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 36.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 16.6 14.8 10.2 17.0 25.8 40.4 49.2 F F F F F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 24.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 21.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 72.3 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 42.0 38.0 47.0 46.0 1.0 -15.0 16.0 U N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 20.0 N N N N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.6% 3.5% 4.5% 25kt / 24h 15.2% 13.5% 14.4% 30kt / 24h 15.2% 9.9% 12.6% 35kt / 24h 15.2% 9.9% 12.6% 40kt / 24h 15.2% 9.9% 12.6% 45kt / 36h 17.7% 4.2% 11.0% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 1.0% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 8.4% 2.8% 5.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.68 EP202026 261014 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 36.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 16.6 14.8 10.2 17.0 25.8 40.4 49.2 N N U U N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 42.0 49.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 20.0 N N N N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6%