Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261015 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 12.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 32.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 10.9 14.7 18.7 24.9 35.7 45.6 47.1 F F F N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 28.0 28.0 27.0 29.0 30.0 16.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 104.6 95.7 97.9 66.1 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 50.0 61.0 27.0 12.0 40.0 39.0 36.0 N N N U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 39.0 40.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 19.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.1% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 3.6% 0.1% 1.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 EP202026 261015 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 32.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 10.9 14.7 18.7 24.9 35.7 45.6 47.1 U U U N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 39.0 40.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 19.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%