Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261015 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 20.2 22.9 25.7 41.3 50.3 45.0 47.8 F N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 24.0 26.0 27.0 27.0 17.0 9.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 102.9 86.6 71.1 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 45.0 37.0 28.0 56.0 76.0 57.0 50.0 -10.0 N N U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 40.0 37.0 32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 11.0 4.0 N N N N N U U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 2.5% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 13.2% 8.4% 30kt / 24h 3.0% 6.3% 4.7% 35kt / 24h 3.0% 6.3% 4.7% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 6.3% 4.7% 45kt / 36h 1.9% 4.1% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.72 EP202026 261015 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 20.2 22.9 25.7 41.3 50.3 45.0 47.8 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 40.0 40.0 39.0 40.0 37.0 32.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.0 11.0 4.0 N N N N N F F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%