Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261016 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 25.9 39.5 46.3 50.9 47.8 57.1 57.1 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 29.0 30.0 23.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 122.0 122.0 112.9 84.3 57.0 42.4 42.4 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 79.0 91.0 76.0 50.0 37.0 30.0 30.0 N N F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 37.0 36.0 38.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 17.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 N N F N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.34 EP202026 261016 00UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 25.9 39.5 46.3 50.9 47.8 57.1 57.1 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 37.0 36.0 38.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -4.0 0.0 17.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 N N U N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%