Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261016 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 38.1 44.4 47.6 46.3 51.5 51.5 51.5 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 28.0 23.0 15.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.0 127.0 117.9 103.5 77.2 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 96.0 98.0 53.0 42.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 F F F N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 38.0 39.0 39.0 35.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 3.0 12.0 19.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 N N N U VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 EP202026 261016 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.70 108.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 38.1 44.4 47.6 46.3 51.5 51.5 51.5 N F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 38.0 39.0 39.0 35.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -2.0 3.0 12.0 19.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 N N N F VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3%