Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202026 261016 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 34.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.10 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.8 42.2 46.4 49.1 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 28.0 21.0 12.0 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 117.9 101.6 89.3 56.7 56.7 56.7 56.7 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 78.0 61.0 43.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 37.0 37.0 35.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 1.0 13.0 21.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 F N U VU U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.50 EP202026 261016 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 61.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.8 42.2 46.4 49.1 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 37.0 37.0 35.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 1.0 13.0 21.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 U N F VF F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 3.2% 0.7% 1.9%