Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  20.8  22.0  22.6  17.9  16.2  17.3  12.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  15.0  16.0  16.0  21.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 125.1 125.1 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  47.0  29.0  63.0  72.0 130.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  67.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       14.6%        9.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        6.2%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.7%        3.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.0%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%       26.5%       15.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.9%       11.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        7.3%       13.5%       10.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%       10.6%        6.3%
 65kt / 72h       10.6%       30.9%       20.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP212026 261013 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.50     96.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  20.8  22.0  22.6  17.9  16.2  17.3  12.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  74.0  76.0  76.0  72.0  67.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%