Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     95.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  23.6  21.8  19.8  17.3  14.7  15.9  14.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  17.0  20.0  31.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.1 127.0 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  56.0  25.0  12.0  44.0  80.0  55.0  62.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.7%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       21.4%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%       10.2%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%       10.2%        6.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       10.2%        6.1%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       30.5%       18.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.9%       14.7%        9.3%
 55kt / 48h        8.5%       17.7%       13.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%       12.8%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       30.3%       18.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 EP212026 261013 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30     95.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  23.6  21.8  19.8  17.3  14.7  15.9  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  79.0  77.0  74.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%