Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  20.6  16.4  14.0  16.8  18.1  18.9  23.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  17.0  15.0  15.0  18.0  26.0  35.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0   5.0  63.0  99.0 101.0  53.0  89.0  45.0  U  U  N  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       26.1%       17.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.4%       14.1%        9.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       14.1%        9.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.4%       14.1%        9.8%
 45kt / 36h        9.8%       32.3%       21.0%
 55kt / 36h        4.5%       14.7%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%       20.6%       14.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%       11.0%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h       10.5%       23.8%       17.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.42

 EP212026 261014 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.80     98.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  20.6  16.4  14.0  16.8  18.1  18.9  23.2  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  72.0  66.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%