Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     99.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.2  13.7  16.3  19.4  16.1  20.0  24.8  N  F  F  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  16.0  17.0  25.0  36.0  41.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  82.0  90.0 119.0 143.0  67.0  87.0  40.0  N  N  F  F VF  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        7.9%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       24.5%       48.5%       36.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.3%       38.2%       26.7%
 35kt / 24h       14.7%       38.2%       26.4%
 40kt / 24h       14.7%       38.2%       26.4%
 45kt / 36h       22.2%       49.3%       35.8%
 55kt / 36h       10.3%       28.8%       19.6%
 55kt / 48h       17.4%       35.7%       26.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.3%       22.3%       14.3%
 65kt / 72h       15.3%       32.7%       24.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 EP212026 261014 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.30     99.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.6  16.2  13.7  16.3  19.4  16.1  20.0  24.8  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  73.0  67.0  64.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%