Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.6  15.3  17.4  18.4  17.8  23.5  28.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  16.0  17.0  18.0  30.0  43.0  51.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  80.0  89.0 112.0  96.0  63.0  40.0  23.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.2%       23.2%       23.7%
 25kt / 24h       51.0%       69.4%       60.2%
 30kt / 24h       37.4%       68.4%       52.9%
 35kt / 24h       37.4%       68.4%       52.9%
 40kt / 24h       37.4%       68.4%       52.9%
 45kt / 36h       38.0%       64.8%       51.4%
 55kt / 36h       21.7%       47.0%       34.3%
 55kt / 48h       19.2%       46.5%       32.9%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       30.0%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h        8.5%       28.6%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 EP212026 261014 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     99.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  17.6  15.3  17.4  18.4  17.8  23.5  28.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%