Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.2  17.6  19.6  16.6  21.5  29.3  28.6  F  N  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  18.0  22.0  33.0  43.0  48.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0 136.0 145.0 134.0  63.0  86.0  67.0  48.0  F VF VF VF  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.0%        9.8%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       34.3%       52.3%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       19.9%       45.6%       32.8%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       45.6%       29.7%
 40kt / 24h       13.8%       45.6%       29.7%
 45kt / 36h       26.2%       40.7%       33.4%
 55kt / 36h       10.3%       20.5%       15.4%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       32.6%       25.3%
 70kt / 48h        6.2%       13.2%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h       13.1%       15.6%       14.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 EP212026 261015 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.10    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  19.2  17.6  19.6  16.6  21.5  29.3  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%