Rapid Intensification Guidance EP212026 261015 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.1 17.5 15.4 18.9 25.2 27.3 23.4 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 18.0 23.0 28.0 37.0 44.0 51.0 45.0 U U U U U N N N Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 127.0 138.0 124.0 67.0 96.0 80.0 53.0 39.0 F VF F N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 69.0 65.0 61.0 57.0 F F N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.8% 25.3% 29.6% 25kt / 24h 57.6% 73.5% 65.6% 30kt / 24h 51.4% 73.5% 62.5% 35kt / 24h 51.4% 73.5% 62.5% 40kt / 24h 51.4% 73.5% 62.5% 45kt / 36h 44.5% 51.3% 47.9% 55kt / 36h 24.3% 30.5% 27.4% 55kt / 48h 21.3% 38.1% 29.7% 70kt / 48h 7.9% 15.2% 11.6% 65kt / 72h 14.0% 15.5% 14.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 EP212026 261015 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 101.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 15.1 17.5 15.4 18.9 25.2 27.3 23.4 N U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 75.0 74.0 73.0 69.0 65.0 61.0 57.0 U U N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%