Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  15.8  14.0  16.4  18.7  28.0  24.8  22.9  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  22.0  27.0  32.0  40.0  50.0  48.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   134.0 110.0  51.0  44.0  40.0   8.0  28.0   4.0 VF  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       70.9%       40.3%       55.6%
 25kt / 24h       92.5%       81.3%       86.9%
 30kt / 24h       92.5%       81.3%       86.9%
 35kt / 24h       92.5%       81.3%       86.9%
 40kt / 24h       92.5%       81.3%       86.9%
 45kt / 36h       61.9%       51.8%       56.8%
 55kt / 36h       32.1%       32.8%       32.4%
 55kt / 48h       20.7%       27.6%       24.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%       11.5%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        8.1%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.98

 EP212026 261015 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  15.8  14.0  16.4  18.7  28.0  24.8  22.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  72.0  70.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%