Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  14.9  17.5  17.2  24.9  28.3  26.4  20.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  35.0  41.0  47.0  48.0  40.0  30.0  25.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  62.0  70.0  74.0  50.0  35.0  33.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.4%       30.9%       41.2%
 25kt / 24h       59.8%       70.7%       65.2%
 30kt / 24h       59.8%       70.7%       65.2%
 35kt / 24h       59.8%       70.7%       65.2%
 40kt / 24h       59.8%       70.7%       65.2%
 45kt / 36h       48.5%       35.7%       42.1%
 55kt / 36h       23.8%       17.9%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h       15.0%       18.7%       16.8%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        5.5%        5.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        4.7%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.18

 EP212026 261015 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    101.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  14.9  17.5  17.2  24.9  28.3  26.4  20.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  71.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  62.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%