Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.5  14.5  17.8  26.8  27.0  20.8  19.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  40.0  45.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  25.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  64.0  80.0  63.0  14.0  35.0  -8.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.1%       18.6%       21.9%
 25kt / 24h       40.7%       48.4%       44.5%
 30kt / 24h       34.2%       48.4%       41.3%
 35kt / 24h       27.4%       48.4%       37.9%
 40kt / 24h       27.4%       48.4%       37.9%
 45kt / 36h       38.9%       18.7%       28.8%
 55kt / 36h       12.2%        7.5%        9.9%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%        8.7%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        2.8%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 EP212026 261016 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    101.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.7  14.5  14.5  17.8  26.8  27.0  20.8  19.6  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  67.0  67.0  61.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%