Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.3  19.9  25.1  29.5  21.7  21.0  27.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  39.0  44.0  52.0  39.0  25.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  68.0  25.0  36.0  29.0  29.0 -19.0 -17.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       58.8%       24.0%       41.4%
 25kt / 24h       40.0%       33.0%       36.5%
 30kt / 24h       40.0%       28.0%       34.0%
 35kt / 24h       40.0%       28.0%       34.0%
 40kt / 24h       40.0%       28.0%       34.0%
 45kt / 36h       60.8%       17.4%       39.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.14

 EP212026 261016 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  15.3  19.9  25.1  29.5  21.7  21.0  27.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  59.0  53.0  47.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%