Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261016 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.2  31.8  29.8  29.0  24.9  28.5  31.4  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  42.0  49.0  51.0  39.0  24.0  26.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  15.0 -31.0  -9.0  19.0  19.0  -6.0 -32.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  52.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 EP212026 261016 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    102.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.2  31.8  29.8  29.0  24.9  28.5  31.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  60.0  52.0  50.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%