Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261017 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  31.4  30.5  25.5  25.0  28.7  29.1  29.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  52.0  51.0  42.0  26.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  23.0  22.0  27.0  12.0   0.0  -5.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       20.5%       11.8%       16.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.6%       32.0%       28.3%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       29.3%       23.7%
 35kt / 24h       17.3%       29.3%       23.3%
 40kt / 24h       14.7%       24.7%       19.7%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%       11.7%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        3.7%        4.0%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        5.5%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.28

 EP212026 261017 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.0  31.4  30.5  25.5  25.0  28.7  29.1  29.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  62.0  60.0  54.0  49.0  43.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%