Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261017 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    103.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.4  27.0  28.2  27.2  32.1  28.1  30.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  47.0  39.0  31.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  26.0   8.0  -1.0 -16.0  -1.0 -20.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.2%       10.1%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       19.8%       27.1%       23.4%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       24.3%       21.5%
 35kt / 24h       18.8%       24.3%       21.5%
 40kt / 24h        7.5%       20.1%       13.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.2%        9.0%        9.6%
 55kt / 36h        2.3%        2.9%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.5%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP212026 261017 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.30    103.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  29.4  27.0  28.2  27.2  32.1  28.1  30.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  40.0  N  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%