Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  27.9  29.8  27.6  30.5  26.8  27.6  28.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  41.0  32.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  24.0  -6.0  15.0 -18.0 -19.0 -25.0 -20.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        7.2%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.3%       20.3%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       16.9%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       16.9%       13.9%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%       13.7%        8.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.9%        5.1%        5.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        1.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 EP212026 261017 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.3  27.9  29.8  27.6  30.5  26.8  27.6  28.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  59.0  56.0  51.0  49.0  42.0  40.0  N  N  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%