Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  29.9  28.4  29.6  29.9  27.9  28.5  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  29.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0   4.0  12.0   7.0 -28.0 -20.0 -15.0 -15.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%        8.4%       11.7%
 25kt / 24h       14.3%       19.8%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%       16.5%       14.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.8%       16.5%       14.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       13.6%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h        8.6%        5.7%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        1.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 EP212026 261018 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    105.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  29.9  28.4  29.6  29.9  27.9  28.5  31.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%