Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP212026 261018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  29.9  28.6  31.0  30.0  29.0  27.0  34.9  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  24.0  25.0  24.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  74.3  74.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  19.0   2.0   2.0 -21.0 -40.0  -9.0 -34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  46.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.6%        5.1%        8.9%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       10.4%        8.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.6%        7.2%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%        7.2%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%        6.1%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.9%        3.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 EP212026 261018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    106.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  29.9  28.6  31.0  30.0  29.0  27.0  34.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  46.0  40.0  41.0  41.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%